UK eating out market to value £95.2bn in 2022

The UK eating out market is set to value £95.2bn in 2022, up 4% from pre-Covid levels in 2019, according to the new Lumina Intelligence UK Eating Out Market Report 2022. Lumina Intelligence said this means that inflation is outpacing market growth. Overall, outlet growth is expected to be positive from 2022, at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of +0.5% from 2022-2025, up from a loss of -0.5% from 2019-2022. Additionally, the eating out market is forecast to total £102.8bn in 2025, representing a CAGR of +2.6% from 2022-2025. Inflation is forecast to sit between 2.5% and 2% from 2023-2025, meaning there will be little volume growth in the market to 2025. The top 10 UK eating out brands will reportedly grow +17.1% and be worth £15.2bn in 2022, with brands including KFC, Greggs and Domino’s expected to see turnover recovery upwards of +20% from 2019. Meanwhile, low ticket channels, including coffee shops, sandwich and bakery, and fast food are gaining outlet share of the market post pandemic. Retail, travel and leisure is reportedly set to be the best performing segment of the UK eating out market, growing at +9.1% against 2019. In comparison, hotels, pubs and restaurants are set for growth of +2.8% and contract catering growth of +3.4%. At a value of £68.7bn, hotels, pubs and restaurants are the largest segment of the UK eating out market, but are also set to see the slowest recovery, with continued outlet decline and dampened consumer confidence impacting footfall in the segment. The proportion of consumers eating out has increased +23% and visit frequency has grown by +15% over the 12 weeks ending 15 May, compared to the same period last year when dine-in was restricted to outdoor-only. Average spend has also grown by +12%, compared to the last May period. Lunch occasions have seen the biggest increase in day-part share in the 12 weeks period at +3.3ppts. This growth has been at the expense of dinner occasions which have declined by -4.4ppts, as consumers opted for daytime and drink-only occasions, driven by more workers being back in offices. Katie Prowse, senior insight manager at Lumina Intelligence, said: “Operators across the UK eating out market will be buoyed by the end of the pandemic and the impact of a year’s trading without restrictions. However, the reality will not live up to expectations, as operators face rising costs, staff shortages and squeezed household incomes. “Delivery, premiumisation and digitisation all continue to be key trends shaping the future of eating and drinking out. Delivery continues to grow its share of the total eating out market.”